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The Five Futures of Cyber Conflict and Cooperation

Abstract: 
Recognizes that the existing scholarship on cyber warfare and its projected future is not fully developed. Our understanding of how conflict unfolds in cyberspace and what kinds of cyber threats will exist in the future is still being theorized. The author recognizes the dangers of equating cyberspace as a static entity, if we are to adapt to new technology and the security challenges and opportunities it presents. It is also states that the world of cyberspace our generation knows today will be virtually unrecognizable to the Internet users of future generations. In conclusion it analyzes five probable future scenarios of cyber conflict within the next ten to twenty years. These five scenarios are outlined as “status quo, conflict domain, balkanization, paradise, and cybergeddon.”
Author: 
Jason Healey
Institution: 
Atlantic Council - Cyber Statecraft Initiative Group
Year: 
2012
Region(s): 
Industry Focus: 
Information & Telecommunication
Internet & Cyberspace
Country: 
United States
Datatype(s): 
Case Studies
Models
Organizations
Theory/Definition