Cyber War Will Not Take Place

In contrast to the predictions of scholars like John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, as well as members of Pentagon, Air Force, and CIA leadership, that “Cyberwar is Coming!” Thomas Rid argues cyber war has never happened, and likely, will never occur. The author outlines a situation that could constitute an act of cyber war, beginning with a definition of “war” as an act meeting three criteria, being: violent, instrumental (indicating a “means to an end”), and political. Rid examines events such as the 2007 cyber-attack on Estonia, the attacks on Georgia by the Russian federation in 2008, and so-forth, arguing that none of these examples meet the necessary criteria (outlined above) to be considered “cyber war.” The article concludes by suggesting all contemporary cyber-attacks operate as sophisticated versions of more traditional activities, namely, sabotage, espionage, and subversion.