Timing of cyber conflict

Nations are expanding their cyber resources to form so-called stockpiles of cyber capabilities. When to deploy such resources is an important consideration and can change outcomes of such actions. This paper developed a simple mathematical model to determine the optimal time of deployment of such resources based on the stakes of the situation and the type of cyber resource being deployed. One important consideration built into this model is that if the resource is used at one particular time, it will likely not be available to use again as adversaries adapt to combat that particular threat. The paper uses case studies such as Stuxnet, the cyber attacks carried out by the Chinese military, and Iranians cyber attack on Saudi Aramco to validate this model. The paper ultimately promotes a deeper understanding of cyber conflict to minimize harm to the world.